Avoiding the trapdoor - the battle to stay in the Football League

By Steven Oldham

At both ends of League Two, there are no certainties over promotion or relegation with just three games left for most teams.

With Scunthorpe, Chesterfield and Rochdale all fluffing their lines in today's games and failing to take a win between them, it is no clearer who will take the title with two points covering the three teams.

At the bottom end of League Two there is an even bigger battle on to avoid relegation to the Conference.  It will now take a miracle for Torquay to survive, and to add insult to injury, will see their relegation sealed if they fail to beat rivals Exeter in their next match.  They lie eight points adrift of safety with nine left to play for.

So, one slot to non-league is filled.  But who will join them? As things stand, just seven points separate Newport County in 13th on 54 points and Northampton Town in 23rd on 47.  Such a close season is now entering its most exciting phase with less than a month on the calendar.  Let's look at the teams in danger.

Newport can still be relegated mathematically but it's almost impossible they will drop back to the Conference after one season in the 92.  Their run in however is tough and they won't sit in 13th by the time the season ends.  A gaggle of matches against sides chasing the playoffs and promotion (Burton, York and Rochdale) will probably prove slim pickings for the Welshmen.

One place and one point behind Newport lie AFC Wimbledon.  The Dons have been steadily picking up points in recent weeks, and have lost one in five.  Tellingly though they have only won one too.  A trip to Plymouth next time out will be a tough ask but they should have enough to make home advantage pay over Morecambe.  An improvement on last year's 20th place is a good base for next season for Neal Ardley's team.

On 52 points are Cheltenham.  A disappointing season for The Robins after making the playoffs two years running.  The Robins have suffered lately with a run of games against teams fighting for honours - Scunthorpe, Southend and Fleetwood.  However they have a kinder run in than some others who are still not safe, with points to be gained against Mansfield and Dagenham.

Accrington's gamble on giving James Beattie his first taste of management appears to have paid off with the club doing better than many predicted before the season started.  They have only lost twice in their last ten and this late season run of consistent points scoring has probably done enough to keep them up for another year.  Trips to Oxford and Southend are not something they will relish while they remain relegation contenders but their important 1-0 victory over Exeter in late March could prove the key point of their season.



James Beattie has done well on a small budget at Accrington
Photo Credit: Getty/BBC



It's sad to even include Portsmouth in this post.  Few, if any, clubs have fallen from grace as quickly as Pompey have in recent years.  Stockport County's similar, more prolonged demise is a sore spot for this writer so I empathise with Portsmouth fans.  Two successive relegations however should not become three, with caretaker boss Andy Awford leading his team to three successive wins since he took over.  In his second reign as caretaker in one season, Awford's loyalty should be rewarded with the full time job.  His in-form team should increase Bristol Rovers' relegation worries tomorrow and there are points to be had from games against Northampton and Plymouth.

Morecambe have 50 points and should be the first of the teams seriously looking over their shoulder.  Winless in eight games, they look set to record their worst season under Jim Bentley to date, who has led the team to respectable mid-table finishes in his two seasons in charge.  Positively, they have held high flying Scunthorpe and Fleetwood to draws in their last two games.

Their next game against Hartlepool is crucial for both teams.  Luckily for Morecambe, 'Pool are in even worse form than they are, losing five on the bounce.  Trips to Burton and Plymouth are unlikely to improve this run and they made need their final game against Exeter to guarantee League Two football for another season, just one season after coming down from the tier above.

Hartlepool vs Exeter on the final day of the season could be crucial
Photo Credit: Hartlepool Mail

Exeter could not hope for a better time for a Devon derby.  They will seal Torquay's fate as long as they avoid defeat to their rivals and this should boost the St James' Park team in their own survival bid.  The Grecians have been declining however and have picked up just two points from 12.  A victory over Torquay would leave their fate in their own hands as they face a tough game against Scunthorpe before finishing the season with the long trip to Hartlepool.

Wycombe are the first of a trio on 47 points and will be hugely disappointed to be battling a second relegation in three years.  Gareth Ainsworth's team drew with Northampton today - a result which neither team any favours - ahead of an unwanted trip to Fleetwood next time out.  Wanderers will have no one but themselves to blame if they don't avoid the drop though, with their final games against Bristol Rovers and Torquay.  To survive you need to beat the teams around you, and if Wycombe can't they may find themselves back in the Conference for the first time since 1993.



Northampton & Bristol Rovers - will they survive?
Photo credit: Andrew Kearns

Trailing Wycombe only on goals scored are Bristol Rovers who meet Portsmouth away tomorrow.  After that they might be able to squeeze a point against Rochdale who have stuttered in their bid for promotion in recent games.  John Joe O'Toole's ability to find the net could be the difference between survival and relegation.  His record of 13 goals from midfield is almost a third of his side's tally for the entire season and gives the most obvious reason Rovers are in real danger of losing their league status.  I think Rovers and Northampton will both end up with 49 points.

In 23rd place at the moment are Northampton Town who one year ago were preparing for the playoffs.  It's fair to say a lot can change in 12 months as Town are, like Bristol Rovers, at real risk of being relegated to non-league for the first time.  The Cobblers are actually one of the form teams of the bottom half of League Two over the last five games, gaining eight points from 15.  Wins over Accrington and Burton prove there is some fight left in the team, but their goal difference is a big worry.  They need an eleven goal swing just to overtake Rovers should they end on the same points which is unlikely at best.

So who's for the drop? Ultimately I think it's between Bristol Rovers and Northampton.  I think both teams have left it too late to put together a run that will realistically drag any of the other teams into the fight.  They both have games against a team with nothing to play for (Rovers v Mansfield and Northampton v Dagenham & Redbridge) so they may be able to pull off a victory and worry the likes of Hartlepool and Morecambe.

Unfortunately for Northampton I don't think they will survive this year.  It will be close, but their poor goal difference and tough games against Oxford and Portsmouth make it unlikely to me they can stay up.  They've left themselves too much too do and I think Rovers will survive by the skin of their teeth.

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